The Orthodox Rebel

Why Syria Is Targetted: Debunking Some Myths

Based on my knowledge and from my Russian perspective, I will try to demystify some of the popular explanations for why Syria is tragetted the way she is.

   One of the reasons named is because of its secularism. While at first glance this seems somewhat logical, because Syria and Libya were one of the few states in the Arab world that were traditionally anti-islamist in their history, Libya being a bufferzone and at the same time active partner with the US in counter-terrorism in North Africa, and Syria being the state who had defeated the Muslim Brotherhood once. However, the reason of secularism in itself does not seem to play an overall role - as many love to think. What does it matter if you are islamist or secular government? Egypt was secular for half a century or so, now it is islamist under the Ikhwan government of Muhammad Mursi. Most gulf monarchies are either Wahhabite kingdoms or otherwise religiously inspired theocracies.
   
    The next assumption is that Syria has the Russian supply base of Tartus - as seemingly reasonable assumption, as the Russian Federation and the Russian people in common are perceived geostrategic enemies. However, the last I heard about Tartus base was that it was rather worn-down and hardly able to really host a complete fleet with tens of ships, as the Ukrainian base in Sevastopol does. It is more like the port-city of Novorossiysk, which can support a number of ships for indefinite time, but is not made for World War scenarios. The only reason I can think of why the Russian Federation would want to keep this facility is that one could unload a lot of "cargo" there, with secret destination.

   Thirdly, it is mentioned how Syria is Russia's only ally in the Arab World. Now, I don't want to downplay the Russian-Syrian friendship in any way, but the only reason why the Russian side supports Syria the way it does is simply: to fight the terrorists that would be sent to the Caucasus or Tatarstan otherwise! In any other aspects, the Russia Federation is acting more like an honest broker, in other terms, Putin is Bismarck who tries to negotiate between China and the Angloamerican powers, and on the way there defending Russian interests as well. The Russian Federation is NOT an active global power striving for dominancy, they are fully on the defensive - reaction whenever national integrity or security is targetted (e.g. Ossetia)! China, however, and the Angloamericans, strive for global economic dominance, and of course there is a military side to it. Iran and meanwhile Syria are basically in China-aligned in these terms.

   Another reason I hear is the idealism of the Syrian leadership is mentioned. It is a much more solid point, especially since much of these ideals are materialized as Syria constitutes the main weapon source of to "insurgents" in the region who fight against Israel primarily. Among the recipients are Hezbollah, who likely helped distribute it to the Palestinian (Gazan) resistance, which has also reportedly acquired the relatively modern Kornet ATGM system - which only Syria and consequently Hezbollah have in large numbers. Relatively modern MANPADs and even point defence systems (short-range SAMs) may not really challenge IAF supremacy - as the Israeli air force is officially known to be the best equipped in the region. They are, however, a nuisance to crackpot warmongers like Netanyahu and might do more psychological than material damage. The ground weapons, including Iranian missiles, have already successfully challenged Israeli air defence when dozens of missiles were fired for days and could not be intercepted in Winter 2012. Of course, the Israelis claim that only a few missiles even fell on their territory, and others into the watery blue. But I disagree. Whatever the damage done by Gazan missiles, I think the acquirement of modern weapons was one of the reasons why there was no invasion - (the other one being a lack of support by Western leaders for a full-scale aggression with ground forces involved). In other words, Gaza has been turned into a thorn in the side of the Zionist entity of Israel, and is another perceived (and righfully) threat to their survival by Syria. And as West Bank Palestinians are also incresingly emotional over colonialism - remembering the mock-hanging of Qatar's overweight sheikh - it might just be that militant factions there may wish to fight the Israel military. In this case, you know who they will ask for weapons first.

   Conclusion: it is thus not about secularism, or the "alliance" with Russia (which is really just a partnership with historical roots), but Syria's role in the region, as a bastion and centre point of resistance to various anti-colonialist powers, in this case frustrating the Angloamerican plans to leave behind islamist chaos and weakened states, while they are retreating to regroup for some time. It is the geopolitical importance as the country which lies between Iran and the Mediterranean, to give Iranian gas access to the Mediterranean - and thus to Europe. It is the global fight for hegemony, where Syria is on the side of China and this way automatically anti-Angloamerican.