The Orthodox Rebel

The Gas Wars aka "Syrian Revolution": Escalations and Developments

Since this is my first post about Syria, I will initiate by giving my thoughts on why this is happening to Syria and how it reflects on the global situation.


   For now, the main goal of destabilizing Syria and creating a puppet government there seems to be directed against Iran. There are reportedly plans to create such an entity in North Eastern Syria to cut off Iranian (gas pipelines) access to the Mediterranean Sea, and thus to Europe - the main competitor is of course Qatar (aka ExxonMobil), which explains the bitter emnity between both sides and the aggression with which overweight Sheikh Thani is pushing the overturn of the Syrian government, Iran's only ally in the Arab World.
   Ultimately, when these mercenary forces have achieved their goal, they will be sent to the Caucasus, or even Tatarstan. They can not go to Iran, because the result would be genocides against these perceived "Sunni extremists" by the ardent Shia population.
 
   Further escalation: after the breakdown of US-Iranian talks on the nuclear program, it seems that Obama has agreed to Netanyahu's suggestion to pursue the overturn of Syria's legitimate government the same way as he had done for 2 years now: by sending thousands of willing mercenaries and murderers primarily across the Turkish-Syrian border. Conservative estimates by people whose judgement I trust have put the death of islamist mercenaries from about last December to end of March to a number around 15.000 - while during that time, they have been able to replace this number, smuggling them through Turkey. As you can see, they have an almost infinite supply of manpower to be used against any state, since there are enough starving people in failed states who are susceptible to the perverted islamist ideology, which is born from ignorance and poverty. On the Turkish side, with the "reconciliation" of Israel's and Turkey's strongmen, and especially Erdogan's deal with Ocalan (whatever that exactly was) - which has gained him a ceasefire agreement with PKK forces who have promised not to attack Turkish Army, raising the question if it is indeed true that Israel has indeed been involved with this group since its very creation - has given "uncle Recip" free reign to destabilize the Syrian border even more than before, while Israel may be encouraged to use the Turkish airspace as it had before to attack targets inside Syria.
   Feeling this attempted escalation to shift balance, the high command of the Russian Federation has started sudden military drills which the Black Sea Fleet and Baltic Fleet (2 landing ships), as well as parts of the Southern military district (including 450km forced march of armor from Moscow to Krasnodar region), have been smoothly absolved, demonstrating that the Armed Forces of Russian Federation are something like a real army that can be actually used in case of military conflicts to defend Russian interests. Although rather little of the weaponry used was state-of-the-art, the numbers involved were quite inspiring: ~7000 servicemen, 30 ships, 250 armored vehicles, Su-24 frontal bombers and Special Forces. This counter-escalation will likely scare off NATO's direct intervention plans, and even Israel's. While the Russian Naval forces - there have been 4 warships active in that region recently - may not directly interveen in case of any military scenario except WW3, the anti-sub and electronic survaillance capabilities can undoubtedly help the Syrian high command with information gathering and Electronic Warfare against NATO's henchmen, who are oftenly equipped with hightech electronical equipment, and also hold the Turkish and Israeli submarines a at bay. This may be connected to the uncovering of Israeli spying equipment in Tartous, supposed to have been monitoring Russian Naval Forces movements (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-israel-s-syria-spy-cameras-tracked-russian-navy-1.512798). Furthermore, the Russian Federation considers the Syrian issue as a threat to its national security since in the case of collapse of the Syrian government, the terrorist mercenary fighters will be used to explode the Muslim-dominated Republics of Russia. That in turn could lead to uggly things like reprisals vs. muslims in the countryside in other parts of the nation, where the societies are more "conservative Christian".

    There has also been escalation by the Syrian Forces happened when Syrian jets bombed some Lebanese border town. While this was likely to be a warning to Lebanese authority, I received reports that Ground Forces had been stationed near the border prior to the strikes (21. Brigade of the 3. Division). The interesting and more than development with this situation was: 4 Russian warships dock in Beirut, Syrian Air Force bombs targets inside Lebanon, Lebanese PM quarrells with Hizbullah, Lebanese PM resigns. I have been told that we will in the near future see similar surprises  happening in the region, initiated by Syria. I want to point your attention towards Aleppo, where various kinds of troops of the Syrian Armed Forces have been massing. They have been involved in cleaning the countryside, but I can feel there is something else left for them to do, as they have not been sent back yet. I also want to point out that all Damascus suburbs infested by terrorists mercenaries have been declared "surrounded" by a Syrian general.

I'm curious to find out how far USA's vassals are willing to go, but I sure as hell know that the US won't get itself involved directly in this one. Any further escalation now could lead to open conflict, as the Syrian side can not allow itself to be further attacked from several directions. As a saying goes: when enemies surround you, defeat them one by one!